Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has something to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
